'We Can Only Dream about Europe': Perceptions of Social Policy as a Driver of Migration Aspirations. The Case of Ukraine

Abstract

Iryna Lapshyna – PhD, Senior researcher, South East European Studies (SEESOX), University of Oxford, UK; Associate Professor, Lviv Catholic University, Ukraine. Email: irina.lapshyna@gmail.com

Franck Düvell – PhD, Associate Professor, Senior Researcher, Centre on Migration, Policy and Society (COMPAS), University of Oxford, UK. Chair of Migration Department, German Centre for Integration and Migration Research, Berlin. Email: franck.duvell@compas.ox.ac.uk

Ukraine is a country of significant emigration, mostly to the EU and Russia. Our 2012 survey (N=2,000) found that 49.3 % of the population covered in four selected areas aimed to live and/or work abroad for some time. Subsequent studies confirm that this has not changed. The first key analytical concept applied to our analysis is that of 'perceptions'; rather than focusing on 'realities' as objective drivers of migration, we examine how individuals perceive realities and thereupon develop their 'aspirations', which is the second key analytical concept. Hence, instead of focussing on the conventional macro-level drivers we aim to understand the micro-level drivers in migration processes. This paper specifically investigates empirically the nexus between individual perceptions of social policy and migration aspirations among Ukrainians. Firstly, we explore how Ukrainians perceive social policies in Ukraine and how they compare these with conditions in Europe. Secondly, we analyse the correlation between these individual perceptions and their migration aspirations. Thirdly, we investigate how people perceive migration, in terms of its consequences, advantages and disadvantages. Fourthly, we describe the subsequent emergence of migration motives and aspirations. Our research finds that dissatisfaction with social policy in the sending country as well as positive perceptions of social policy in the destination countries are important contributors to the emergence of migration aspirations. This largely confirms the often-rejected welfare-magnet-hypothesis of neoclassical economic thinking.