Ukrainian Migration to Russia and Europe: New Trends and Its Consequences

Abstract

Olga Gulina – candidate of legal science, PhD in Migration Studies, CEO & Founder, RUSMPI–
Institute on Migration Policy, Berlin, Germany. Email: contact@rusmpi.org

 Oleksii  Pozniak – candidate of economic science, head of the migration research department, Institute
of Demography at the Ukrainian Academy of Science, Kiev, Ukraine. Email: olex_poznyak@ukr.net

Migration is a serious challenge for Ukraine’s future, because the country is suffering from a human capital drain, both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Ukraine has faced a prolonged period of poor governance, as well as a system that resembles a kleptocracy, and a decline in living standards combined with the on-going conflict across its border with Russia. These factors have contributed to the growth of a migration outflow. However, Ukraine is historically not a country of emigrants: large outflows have usually
only occurred as a result of political, economic, or social upheavals inside the country. Over the years, Ukraine’s outward migration might vary in terms of numbers, but the main pattern of migration destinations for Ukrainian nationals stayed consistent. That pattern changed abruptly in 2014. Before
2014, the main migration flows from Ukraine went eastwards, with Russia as the primary destination. Today, the majority of Ukrainians now move west, primarily to Poland. Ukraine’s current fractured migration pattern reflects the dilemma faced by Ukraine itself: whether to choose the East
(meaning Russia) or the West (meaning the EU member-states, primary Poland). The paper’s results are based on studies made by Ukrainian, Russian and European scholars, as well as statistics of the Kiev’s Institute of Demography at the Ukrainian Academy of Science, Russia’s statistic agency, the Main Department on Migration Issues at the Russian MIA and the European statistic agency. The paper analyses migration flows from Ukraine, its specific features and dynamics. Three imaginable scenarios emerge, which we term 'practical', 'optimistic' and 'critical', that, in differing ways, describe changes in the geography of migration from the territory of Ukraine.